Chris Duncan vs Omar Morales
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-3-0Record11-4-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height5'11"
71"Reach73"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Top TeamTeamThe Goat Shed Academy
What's at stake
Chris Duncan is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Omar Morales carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1732
If they lose-22→ 1700
If they win+22→ 1610
If they lose-10→ 1578
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1656 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1626 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Chris DuncanOmar Morales
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Chris Duncan92%
Omar Morales 8%Elo baseline: 68%
The Combat Edge model makes Chris Duncan a 92% favorite over Omar Morales in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (68%).
Chris Duncan holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1722 to 1588, a 134-point edge.
Omar Morales enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Chris Duncan finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Omar Morales 64%.
Omar Morales carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.