Chris Duncan vs Terrance McKinney
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-3-0Record18-9-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height5'10"
71"Reach73"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Top TeamTeamWarrior Camp
What's at stake
Chris Duncan is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Terrance McKinney carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1736
If they lose-19→ 1704
If they win+14→ 1676
If they lose-10→ 1652
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1656 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1671 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Chris DuncanTerrance McKinney
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Chris Duncan61%
Terrance McKinney 39%Elo baseline: 59%
The Combat Edge model makes Chris Duncan a 61% favorite over Terrance McKinney in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).
Chris Duncan holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1723 to 1662, a 61-point edge.
Chris Duncan finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Terrance McKinney 100%.
Terrance McKinney carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.