Combat Edge Intelligence

Chris Gutierrez vs John Castañeda

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

22-5-2Record21-8-1
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'8"Height5'7"
67"Reach71"
136 lbsWeight135 lbs
Factory XTeamThe Academy

What's at stake

Chris Gutierrez is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — John Castañeda carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Chris GutierrezNow 1749
If they win+10→ 1759
If they lose-14→ 1735
John CastañedaNow 1696
If they win+14→ 1710
If they lose-10→ 1686

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1687 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1667 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.59
Sig. strikes / min
4.42
59%
Strike accuracy
51%
2.65
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.94
63%
Strike defense
54%
0.24
Takedown avg.
1.68
25%
Takedown accuracy
37%
70%
Takedown defense
74%
0.08
Submission avg.
0.13

Trajectory

Chris GutierrezJohn Castañeda
170017502023202420252026

Win method breakdown

9 (41%)
KO/TKO
8 (38%)
1 (5%)
Submission
6 (29%)
12 (55%)
Decision
7 (33%)

Combat Edge model read

Chris Gutierrez56%
John Castañeda 44%Elo baseline: 58%

The Combat Edge model makes Chris Gutierrez a 56% favorite over John Castañeda in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).

Chris Gutierrez holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1749 to 1696, a 53-point edge.

Chris Gutierrez finishes 45% of wins inside the distance, John Castañeda 67%.

John Castañeda carries a 4-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.