Combat Edge Intelligence

Chris Gutierrez vs Ryan MacDonald

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

22-5-2Record11-3-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'8"Height5'11"
67"Reach40.00
136 lbsWeight135 lbs
Factory XTeamDisorderly Conduct

What's at stake

Chris Gutierrez is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +5 while a loss costs more — Ryan MacDonald carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Chris GutierrezNow 1749
If they win+5→ 1754
If they lose-19→ 1730
Ryan MacDonaldNow 1507
If they win+38→ 1545
If they lose-10→ 1497

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1687 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1597 · 5 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.59
Sig. strikes / min
2.28
59%
Strike accuracy
29%
2.65
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
6.49
63%
Strike defense
46%
0.24
Takedown avg.
0
25%
Takedown accuracy
0%
70%
Takedown defense
0%
0.08
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Chris GutierrezRyan MacDonald
1500160017002022202320242025

Win method breakdown

9 (41%)
KO/TKO
4 (36%)
1 (5%)
Submission
3 (27%)
12 (55%)
Decision
4 (36%)

Combat Edge model read

Chris Gutierrez78%
Ryan MacDonald 22%Elo baseline: 80%

The Combat Edge model makes Chris Gutierrez a 78% favorite over Ryan MacDonald in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (80%).

Chris Gutierrez holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1749 to 1507, a 242-point edge.

Chris Gutierrez finishes 45% of wins inside the distance, Ryan MacDonald 64%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.