Chris Mecate vs Lucas Almeida
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
13-3-0Record15-5-0
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height6'0"
70" Reach71"
150 lbsWeight145 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1668
If they lose-16→ 1636
If they win+16→ 1667
If they lose-16→ 1635
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1555 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1616 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Chris MecateLucas Almeida
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Chris Mecate79%
Lucas Almeida 21%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Chris Mecate a 79% favorite over Lucas Almeida in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1652 vs 1651), separated by just 1 points.
Lucas Almeida enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Chris Mecate finishes 46% of wins inside the distance, Lucas Almeida 93%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.