Combat Edge Intelligence

Chris Mecate vs Manuel Exposito

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

12-3-0Record14-4-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'7"
70" Reach69"
150 lbsWeight150 lbs
Miura BJJTeamEntram Gym· 1683 avg Elo · 11 rated

What's at stake

Manuel Exposito is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Chris Mecate carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Chris MecateNow 1635
If they win+17→ 1652
If they lose-15→ 1620
Manuel ExpositoNow 1657
If they win+15→ 1672
If they lose-17→ 1640

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1540 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1538 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
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Strike accuracy
TBD
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Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
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Strike defense
TBD
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Takedown avg.
TBD
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Takedown accuracy
TBD
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Takedown defense
TBD
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Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Chris MecateManuel Exposito
160016501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (33%)
KO/TKO
4 (29%)
2 (17%)
Submission
7 (50%)
6 (50%)
Decision
3 (21%)

Combat Edge model read

Manuel Exposito63%
Chris Mecate 37%Elo baseline: 53%

The Combat Edge model makes Manuel Exposito a 63% favorite over Chris Mecate in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).

Manuel Exposito holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1657 to 1635, a 22-point edge.

Chris Mecate finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Manuel Exposito 79%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.