Chris Mecate vs Manuel Exposito
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Manuel Exposito57%
Chris Mecate 43%Elo baseline: 47%
The Combat Edge model makes Manuel Exposito a 57% favorite over Chris Mecate in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Chris Mecate's way (47%).
Chris Mecate holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1663 to 1645, a 18-point edge.
Chris Mecate finishes 46% of wins inside the distance, Manuel Exposito 79%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
13-3-0Record14-5-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'7"
70" Reach69"
150 lbsWeight150 lbs
Miura BJJTeamEntram Gym· 1670 avg Elo · 14 rated
What's at stake
Chris Mecate is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Manuel Exposito carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1678
If they lose-17→ 1646
If they win+17→ 1662
If they lose-15→ 1630
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1579 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1552 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Chris MecateManuel Exposito