Combat Edge Intelligence

Chris Padilla vs MarQuel Mederos

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

17-6-1Record11-1-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'10"
74"Reach69"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
California Mixed Martial ArtsTeamFactory X

What's at stake

Chris Padilla is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — MarQuel Mederos carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Chris PadillaNow 1703
If they win+15→ 1718
If they lose-17→ 1686
MarQuel MederosNow 1687
If they win+17→ 1704
If they lose-15→ 1672

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1605 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1557 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.78
Sig. strikes / min
4.84
54%
Strike accuracy
57%
3.87
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.99
56%
Strike defense
58%
1.18
Takedown avg.
0
30%
Takedown accuracy
0%
75%
Takedown defense
84%
0.39
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Chris PadillaMarQuel Mederos
160016501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

9 (53%)
KO/TKO
6 (55%)
5 (29%)
Submission
0 (0%)
3 (18%)
Decision
5 (45%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Chris Padilla and MarQuel Mederos within a point of even.

Chris Padilla holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1703 to 1687, a 16-point edge.

Chris Padilla enters on a 8-fight win streak.

Chris Padilla finishes 82% of wins inside the distance, MarQuel Mederos 55%.

Chris Padilla carries a 5-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.