Chris Padilla vs MarQuel Mederos
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-6-1Record12-1-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'10"
74"Reach69"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
California Mixed Martial Arts· 1673 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamFactory X
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1735
If they lose-12→ 1711
If they win+16→ 1731
If they lose-16→ 1699
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1631 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1596 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Chris PadillaMarQuel Mederos
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Chris Padilla55%
MarQuel Mederos 45%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Chris Padilla a 55% favorite over MarQuel Mederos in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1723 vs 1715), separated by just 8 points.
Chris Padilla enters on a 9-fight win streak.
Chris Padilla finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, MarQuel Mederos 58%.
Chris Padilla carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.