Chris Weidman vs Ronaldo Souza
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-8-0Record26-10-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height6'1"
78"Reach72"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Serra-Longo Fight Team· 1771 avg Elo · 4 ratedTeamFusion X-Cel Performance· 1623 avg Elo · 4 rated
What's at stake
Ronaldo Souza is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Chris Weidman carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1723
If they lose-14→ 1691
If they win+10→ 1759
If they lose-14→ 1735
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1734 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1727 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Chris WeidmanRonaldo Souza
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Chris Weidman54%
Ronaldo Souza 46%Elo baseline: 44%
The Combat Edge model makes Chris Weidman a 54% favorite over Ronaldo Souza in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Ronaldo Souza's way (44%).
Ronaldo Souza holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1749 to 1705, a 44-point edge.
Ronaldo Souza enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Chris Weidman finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Ronaldo Souza 85%.
Chris Weidman and Ronaldo Souza share 1 common opponent: Kelvin Gastelum.
Chris Weidman carries a 6-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.