Christian Leroy Duncan vs Marco Tulio
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-3-0Record14-3-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height6'1"
79"Reach74"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Range Martial Arts AcademyTeamChute Boxe Diego Lima
What's at stake
Christian Leroy Duncan is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Marco Tulio carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+12→ 1764
If they lose-20→ 1732
If they win+20→ 1692
If they lose-12→ 1660
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1683 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1562 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Christian Leroy DuncanMarco Tulio
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Christian Leroy Duncan88%
Marco Tulio 12%Elo baseline: 61%
The Combat Edge model makes Christian Leroy Duncan a 88% favorite over Marco Tulio in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).
Christian Leroy Duncan holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1752 to 1672, a 80-point edge.
Marco Tulio enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Christian Leroy Duncan finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Marco Tulio 79%.
Christian Leroy Duncan carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.