Combat Edge Intelligence

Christian Morecraft vs Matt Mitrione

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

8-3-0Record13-9-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'6"Height6'3"
TBDReach43,0"
261 lbsWeight255 lbs
Team BombsquadTeamKill Cliff FC

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Christian MorecraftNow 1638
If they win+16→ 1654
If they lose-16→ 1622
Matt MitrioneNow 1632
If they win+16→ 1648
If they lose-16→ 1616

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1537 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1707 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.82
Sig. strikes / min
3.55
34%
Strike accuracy
50%
2.46
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.79
46%
Strike defense
65%
3.26
Takedown avg.
0
67%
Takedown accuracy
0%
50%
Takedown defense
55%
2.17
Submission avg.
0.68

Trajectory

Christian MorecraftMatt Mitrione
165017002012201320142015201620172018201920202021

Win method breakdown

3 (38%)
KO/TKO
11 (85%)
5 (63%)
Submission
0 (0%)
0 (0%)
Decision
2 (15%)

Combat Edge model read

Christian Morecraft61%
Matt Mitrione 39%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Christian Morecraft a 61% favorite over Matt Mitrione in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1638 vs 1632), separated by just 6 points.

Matt Mitrione enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Christian Morecraft finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Matt Mitrione 85%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.