Combat Edge Intelligence

Christian Morecraft vs Stefan Struve

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

8-3-0Record29-13-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'6"Height7'0"
TBDReach84,5"
261 lbsWeight265 lbs
Team BombsquadTeamTeam Schrijber

What's at stake

Stefan Struve is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Christian Morecraft carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Christian MorecraftNow 1638
If they win+17→ 1655
If they lose-15→ 1623
Stefan StruveNow 1664
If they win+11→ 1675
If they lose-13→ 1651

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1537 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1696 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.82
Sig. strikes / min
3.12
34%
Strike accuracy
47%
2.46
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.04
46%
Strike defense
47%
3.26
Takedown avg.
0.56
67%
Takedown accuracy
47%
50%
Takedown defense
56%
2.17
Submission avg.
1.68

Trajectory

Christian MorecraftStefan Struve
16501700201220132014201520162017201820192020

Win method breakdown

3 (38%)
KO/TKO
8 (29%)
5 (63%)
Submission
18 (64%)
0 (0%)
Decision
2 (7%)

Combat Edge model read

Christian Morecraft51%
Stefan Struve 49%Elo baseline: 46%

The Combat Edge model makes Christian Morecraft a 51% favorite over Stefan Struve in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Stefan Struve's way (46%).

Stefan Struve holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1664 to 1638, a 26-point edge.

Stefan Struve enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Christian Morecraft finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Stefan Struve 93%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.