Christopher Bajo vs Joaquin Garcia
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Joaquin Garcia54%
Christopher Bajo 46%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Joaquin Garcia a 54% favorite over Christopher Bajo in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Christopher Bajo's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1551 vs 1548), separated by just 3 points.
Christopher Bajo finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Joaquin Garcia 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
6-4-0Record3-1-0
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height6'1"
-Reach-
170 lbsWeight175 lbs
Malmö Muay ThaiTeamTeam Oyama· 1643 avg Elo · 5 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1567
If they lose-16→ 1535
If they win+24→ 1572
If they lose-24→ 1524
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1502 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1511 · 4 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Christopher BajoJoaquin Garcia