Christopher Collins vs Zdenek Polivka
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Zdenek Polivka58%
Christopher Collins 42%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Zdenek Polivka a 58% favorite over Christopher Collins in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Christopher Collins's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1524 vs 1524), separated by just 0 points.
Zdenek Polivka enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Zdenek Polivka 50%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
2-1-0Record10-9-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'3"Height6'1"
-Reach-
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Jackson-Wink MMATeamGorila MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1548
If they lose-24→ 1500
If they win+16→ 1540
If they lose-16→ 1508
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1505 · 3 fightsPre-fight Elo1546 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Christopher CollinsZdenek Polivka