Claudio Ribeiro vs Joseph Holmes
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Joseph Holmes62%
Claudio Ribeiro 38%Elo baseline: 48%
The Combat Edge model makes Joseph Holmes a 62% favorite over Claudio Ribeiro in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Claudio Ribeiro's way (48%).
Claudio Ribeiro holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1611 to 1594, a 17-point edge.
Claudio Ribeiro enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Joseph Holmes enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Claudio Ribeiro finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Joseph Holmes 100%.
Joseph Holmes carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
11-5-0Record8-4-0
MiddleweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
5'10"Height6'4"
77,0"Reach 80"
185 lbsWeight189 lbs
Revira Black Team· 1602 avg Elo · 4 ratedTeamWAR Training Center
What's at stake
Claudio Ribeiro is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Joseph Holmes carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1626
If they lose-17→ 1594
If they win+17→ 1611
If they lose-15→ 1579
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1599 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1571 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Claudio RibeiroJoseph Holmes