Clay Guida vs Igor Włodarczyk
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Clay Guida52%
Igor Włodarczyk 48%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Clay Guida a 52% favorite over Igor Włodarczyk in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1598 vs 1598), separated by just 0 points.
Clay Guida enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Igor Włodarczyk enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Clay Guida finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Igor Włodarczyk 50%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
38-25-0Record4-0-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'7"Height6'1"
70"Reach-
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Team Alpha Male· 1650 avg Elo · 18 ratedTeamCzerwony Smok· 1627 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1610
If they lose-12→ 1586
If they win+24→ 1622
If they lose-24→ 1574
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1671 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1526 · 4 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Clay GuidaIgor Włodarczyk