Clay Guida vs Rafa García
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
38-25-0Record19-4-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'7"Height5'7"
70"Reach70"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Team Alpha Male· 1645 avg Elo · 21 ratedTeamTeam Elevation
What's at stake
Rafa García is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Clay Guida carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1616
If they lose-7→ 1592
If they win+9→ 1765
If they lose-23→ 1733
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1672 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1679 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Clay GuidaRafa García
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rafa García92%
Clay Guida 8%Elo baseline: 71%
The Combat Edge model makes Rafa García a 92% favorite over Clay Guida in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (71%).
Rafa García holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1756 to 1599, a 157-point edge.
Clay Guida enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Rafa García enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Clay Guida finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Rafa García 56%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.