Clay Harvison vs Seth Baczynski
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-9-0Record21-16-0
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height6'3"
TBDReachTBD
160 lbsWeight185 lbs
Madhouse TrainingTeamPower MMA Team
What's at stake
Seth Baczynski is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Clay Harvison carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1542
If they lose-15→ 1510
If they win+11→ 1565
If they lose-13→ 1541
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1511 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1555 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Clay HarvisonSeth Baczynski
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Clay Harvison52%
Seth Baczynski 48%Elo baseline: 46%
The Combat Edge model makes Clay Harvison a 52% favorite over Seth Baczynski in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Seth Baczynski's way (46%).
Seth Baczynski holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1554 to 1525, a 29-point edge.
Seth Baczynski enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Clay Harvison finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Seth Baczynski 90%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.