Combat Edge Intelligence

Clayton Carpenter vs Tagir Ulanbekov

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

8-3-0Record17-3-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'5"Height5'7"
66"Reach70"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
MMA LabTeamEagles MMA

What's at stake

Tagir Ulanbekov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Clayton Carpenter carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Clayton CarpenterNow 1627
If they win+21→ 1648
If they lose-11→ 1616
Tagir UlanbekovNow 1740
If they win+11→ 1751
If they lose-21→ 1719

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1585 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1642 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.66
Sig. strikes / min
3.37
54%
Strike accuracy
49%
2.57
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.36
56%
Strike defense
52%
1.99
Takedown avg.
2.94
46%
Takedown accuracy
39%
38%
Takedown defense
62%
1.33
Submission avg.
1.56

Trajectory

Clayton CarpenterTagir Ulanbekov
165017001750202420252026

Win method breakdown

2 (25%)
KO/TKO
1 (6%)
4 (50%)
Submission
8 (47%)
2 (25%)
Decision
8 (47%)

Combat Edge model read

Tagir Ulanbekov68%
Clayton Carpenter 32%Elo baseline: 66%

The Combat Edge model makes Tagir Ulanbekov a 68% favorite over Clayton Carpenter in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (66%).

Tagir Ulanbekov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1740 to 1627, a 113-point edge.

Clayton Carpenter enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Clayton Carpenter finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Tagir Ulanbekov 53%.

Tagir Ulanbekov carries a 4-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.