Colby Covington vs Kamaru Usman
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
17-5-0Record21-5-0
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'11"Height6'0"
72"Reach76"
170 lbsWeight185 lbs
MMA MastersTeamKill Cliff FC
What's at stake
Kamaru Usman is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Colby Covington carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1783
If they lose-14→ 1751
If they win+10→ 1820
If they lose-14→ 1796
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1776 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1799 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Colby CovingtonKamaru Usman
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Kamaru Usman72%
Colby Covington 28%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Kamaru Usman a 72% favorite over Colby Covington in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Kamaru Usman holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1810 to 1765, a 45-point edge.
Colby Covington enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Colby Covington finishes 47% of wins inside the distance, Kamaru Usman 48%.
Colby Covington and Kamaru Usman share 3 common opponents: Joaquin Buckley, Leon Edwards and Jorge Masvidal.
Kamaru Usman carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.