Colby Thicknesse vs Vince Morales
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
9-1-0Record16-11-0
FlyweightDivisionBantamweight
5'9"Height5'7"
69"Reach70"
125 lbsWeight136 lbs
Freestyle Fighting GymTeamSyndicate MMA
What's at stake
Colby Thicknesse is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Vince Morales carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1681
If they lose-18→ 1649
If they win+14→ 1633
If they lose-10→ 1609
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1531 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1614 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Colby ThicknesseVince Morales
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Colby Thicknesse71%
Vince Morales 29%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Colby Thicknesse a 71% favorite over Vince Morales in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Colby Thicknesse holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1667 to 1619, a 48-point edge.
Colby Thicknesse enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Vince Morales enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Colby Thicknesse finishes 44% of wins inside the distance, Vince Morales 75%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.