Combat Edge Intelligence

Cole Smith vs Mitch Gagnon

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Cole Smith
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Cole Smith

“The Cole Train”

7-3-0BantamweightXMMA

1592Solid

Tale of the tape

7-3-0Record12-5-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'11"Height5'6"
41,0"Reach65,5"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Team Quest ThailandTeamTroop MMA

What's at stake

Mitch Gagnon is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Cole Smith carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Cole SmithNow 1592
If they win+18→ 1610
If they lose-14→ 1578
Mitch GagnonNow 1631
If they win+14→ 1645
If they lose-18→ 1613

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1555 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1601 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.78
Sig. strikes / min
2.76
35%
Strike accuracy
46%
1.96
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.21
50%
Strike defense
62%
1.67
Takedown avg.
1.16
33%
Takedown accuracy
25%
45%
Takedown defense
66%
1.67
Submission avg.
1.93

Trajectory

Cole SmithMitch Gagnon
16001650201720182019202020212022

Win method breakdown

2 (29%)
KO/TKO
1 (8%)
3 (43%)
Submission
10 (83%)
2 (29%)
Decision
1 (8%)

Combat Edge model read

Mitch Gagnon54%
Cole Smith 46%Elo baseline: 56%

The Combat Edge model makes Mitch Gagnon a 54% favorite over Cole Smith in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).

Mitch Gagnon holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1631 to 1592, a 39-point edge.

Cole Smith enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Mitch Gagnon enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Cole Smith finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Mitch Gagnon 92%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.