Colton Smith vs Pedro Souza
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
7-5-0Record5-0-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height5'10"
TBDReach-
170 lbsWeight156 lbs
VanguardTeamCerrado MMA· 1624 avg Elo · 8 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1577
If they lose-16→ 1545
If they win+24→ 1586
If they lose-24→ 1538
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1568 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1567 · 9 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Colton SmithPedro Souza
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Pedro Souza61%
Colton Smith 39%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Pedro Souza a 61% favorite over Colton Smith in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1561 vs 1562), separated by just 1 points.
Pedro Souza enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Colton Smith finishes 43% of wins inside the distance, Pedro Souza 20%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.