Connor Hughes vs Rasul Magomedov
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Connor Hughes80%
Rasul Magomedov 20%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Connor Hughes a 80% favorite over Rasul Magomedov in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1668 vs 1666), separated by just 2 points.
Connor Hughes enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Connor Hughes finishes 85% of wins inside the distance, Rasul Magomedov 35%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
13-3-0Record17-5-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'10"
73"Reach-
155 lbsWeight171 lbs
The MMA Academy Liverpool· 1648 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamAchilles
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1684
If they lose-16→ 1652
If they win+16→ 1682
If they lose-16→ 1650
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1578 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1571 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Connor HughesRasul Magomedov