Connor Matthews vs Pedro Pena
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Connor Matthews53%
Pedro Pena 47%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Connor Matthews a 53% favorite over Pedro Pena in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1561 vs 1560), separated by just 1 points.
Connor Matthews enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Connor Matthews finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Pedro Pena 78%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
7-4-0Record10-4-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'8"Height5'10"
71"Reach-
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1577
If they lose-16→ 1545
If they win+16→ 1576
If they lose-16→ 1544
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1544 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1492 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Connor MatthewsPedro Pena