Crafton Wallace vs Nate Marquardt
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-6-1Record36-20-2
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height6'0"
TBDReach42,0"
184 lbsWeight185 lbs
What's at stake
Nate Marquardt is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Crafton Wallace carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+19→ 1612
If they lose-13→ 1580
If they win+10→ 1661
If they lose-14→ 1637
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1524 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1623 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Crafton WallaceNate Marquardt
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Nate Marquardt80%
Crafton Wallace 20%Elo baseline: 58%
The Combat Edge model makes Nate Marquardt a 80% favorite over Crafton Wallace in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).
Nate Marquardt holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1651 to 1593, a 58-point edge.
Crafton Wallace enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Crafton Wallace finishes 94% of wins inside the distance, Nate Marquardt 78%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.