Cristian Pérez vs Kyle Nelson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-2-0Record17-7-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'11"
72"Reach 71"
155 lbsWeight149 lbs
Victory Fight Club· 1675 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamHouse of Champions MMA
What's at stake
Cristian Pérez is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Kyle Nelson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1719
If they lose-18→ 1687
If they win+13→ 1683
If they lose-11→ 1659
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1534 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1672 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Cristian PérezKyle Nelson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Kyle Nelson53%
Cristian Pérez 47%Elo baseline: 45%
The Combat Edge model makes Kyle Nelson a 53% favorite over Cristian Pérez in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Cristian Pérez's way (45%).
Cristian Pérez holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1705 to 1670, a 35-point edge.
Cristian Pérez enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Cristian Pérez finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Kyle Nelson 59%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.