Cub Swanson vs Kron Gracie
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
31-14-0Record5-3-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'8"Height5'9"
70"Reach70"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
UFC Gym Costa MesaTeamKron Gracie Jiu-Jitsu
What's at stake
Cub Swanson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Kron Gracie carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+7→ 1755
If they lose-17→ 1731
If they win+34→ 1625
If they lose-14→ 1577
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1677 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1626 · 8 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Cub SwansonKron Gracie
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Cub Swanson84%
Kron Gracie 16%Elo baseline: 71%
The Combat Edge model makes Cub Swanson a 84% favorite over Kron Gracie in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (71%).
Cub Swanson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1748 to 1591, a 157-point edge.
Cub Swanson enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Kron Gracie enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Cub Swanson finishes 61% of wins inside the distance, Kron Gracie 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.