Cub Swanson vs Luke Riley
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Luke Riley
Elo1739GoodTale of the tape
31-14-0Record13-0-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'8"Height5'9"
70"Reach69"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
UFC Gym Costa MesaTeamNext Generation MMA Liverpool
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1760
If they lose-12→ 1736
If they win+16→ 1755
If they lose-16→ 1723
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1677 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1531 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Cub SwansonLuke Riley
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Luke Riley60%
Cub Swanson 40%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Luke Riley a 60% favorite over Cub Swanson in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Cub Swanson's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1748 vs 1739), separated by just 9 points.
Cub Swanson enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Luke Riley enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Cub Swanson finishes 61% of wins inside the distance, Luke Riley 69%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.