Cub Swanson vs Shane Burgos
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
31-14-0Record16-5-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'11"
70"Reach75"
145 lbsWeight155 lbs
UFC Gym Costa MesaTeamTeam Tiger Schulmann
What's at stake
Cub Swanson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Shane Burgos carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1759
If they lose-13→ 1735
If they win+17→ 1750
If they lose-15→ 1718
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1677 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1703 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Cub SwansonShane Burgos
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Shane Burgos57%
Cub Swanson 43%Elo baseline: 48%
The Combat Edge model makes Shane Burgos a 57% favorite over Cub Swanson in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Cub Swanson's way (48%).
Cub Swanson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1748 to 1733, a 15-point edge.
Cub Swanson enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Cub Swanson finishes 61% of wins inside the distance, Shane Burgos 63%.
Cub Swanson and Shane Burgos share 1 common opponent: Billy Quarantillo.
Shane Burgos carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.