Cub Swanson vs Tatsuya Kawajiri
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
31-14-0Record37-14-2
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'8"Height5'7"
70"Reach69.00
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
UFC Gym Costa MesaTeamT-Blood
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1760
If they lose-12→ 1736
If they win+12→ 1749
If they lose-12→ 1725
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1677 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1658 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Cub SwansonTatsuya Kawajiri
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Cub Swanson70%
Tatsuya Kawajiri 30%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Cub Swanson a 70% favorite over Tatsuya Kawajiri in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1748 vs 1737), separated by just 11 points.
Cub Swanson enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Cub Swanson finishes 61% of wins inside the distance, Tatsuya Kawajiri 61%.
Cub Swanson and Tatsuya Kawajiri share 1 common opponent: Kron Gracie.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.