Combat Edge Intelligence

Cynthia Calvillo vs Nicolle Caliari

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

10-6-1Record9-4-0
FlyweightDivisionStrawweight
5'4"Height5'3"
64"Reach 62"
119 lbsWeight116 lbs
Tiger Muay ThaiTeamThai Brasil

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Cynthia CalvilloNow 1589
If they win+16→ 1605
If they lose-16→ 1573
Nicolle CaliariNow 1594
If they win+16→ 1610
If they lose-16→ 1578

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1637 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1521 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.41
Sig. strikes / min
3.46
38%
Strike accuracy
38%
4.12
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
7.01
64%
Strike defense
54%
1.80
Takedown avg.
2.88
44%
Takedown accuracy
24%
78%
Takedown defense
0%
0.81
Submission avg.
0.96

Trajectory

Cynthia CalvilloNicolle Caliari
1600165020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

2 (20%)
KO/TKO
5 (56%)
3 (30%)
Submission
4 (44%)
5 (50%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Nicolle Caliari61%
Cynthia Calvillo 39%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Nicolle Caliari a 61% favorite over Cynthia Calvillo in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1589 vs 1594), separated by just 5 points.

Cynthia Calvillo finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Nicolle Caliari 100%.

Cynthia Calvillo carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.