Cássio Barão vs Johnny Case
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-1-1Record30-10-1
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'8"Height5'10"
71"Reach72,5"
155 lbsWeight159 lbs
Dyogo Teles MMATeamMMA Lab
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1657
If they lose-16→ 1625
If they win+12→ 1652
If they lose-12→ 1628
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1503 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1617 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Cássio BarãoJohnny Case
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Johnny Case58%
Cássio Barão 42%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Johnny Case a 58% favorite over Cássio Barão in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Cássio Barão's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1641 vs 1640), separated by just 1 points.
Cássio Barão enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Cássio Barão finishes 90% of wins inside the distance, Johnny Case 86%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.