César Almeida vs Murad Abdulaev
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
César Almeida73%
Murad Abdulaev 27%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes César Almeida a 73% favorite over Murad Abdulaev in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Murad Abdulaev's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1652 vs 1653), separated by just 1 points.
Murad Abdulaev enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
César Almeida finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Murad Abdulaev 46%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
7-3-0Record24-10-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height5'9"
74"Reach-
185 lbsWeight186 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1668
If they lose-16→ 1636
If they win+12→ 1665
If they lose-12→ 1641
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1636 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1594 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
César AlmeidaMurad Abdulaev