Combat Edge Intelligence

Dakota Bush vs Magomed Mustafaev

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

17-4-0Record14-3-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'9"
73"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
The Smith PitTeamFight Club Akhmat· 1683 avg Elo · 20 rated

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Dakota BushNow 1707
If they win+16→ 1723
If they lose-16→ 1691
Magomed MustafaevNow 1705
If they win+16→ 1721
If they lose-16→ 1689

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1574 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1608 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

2.77
Sig. strikes / min
2.59
39%
Strike accuracy
59%
4.42
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.68
42%
Strike defense
41%
2.40
Takedown avg.
3.31
0%
Takedown accuracy
50%
0%
Takedown defense
23%
0
Submission avg.
0.41

Trajectory

Dakota BushMagomed Mustafaev
165017002020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (18%)
KO/TKO
10 (71%)
6 (35%)
Submission
4 (29%)
8 (47%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Dakota Bush56%
Magomed Mustafaev 44%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Dakota Bush a 56% favorite over Magomed Mustafaev in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1707 vs 1705), separated by just 2 points.

Dakota Bush enters on a 9-fight win streak.

Dakota Bush finishes 53% of wins inside the distance, Magomed Mustafaev 100%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.