Dakota Hope vs Sage Northcutt
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-3-0Record12-3-0
FeatherweightDivisionWelterweight
5'6"Height6'0"
67"Reach71,5"
146 lbsWeight170 lbs
4oz. Fight Club· 1653 avg Elo · 6 ratedTeamTeam Alpha Male· 1645 avg Elo · 21 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1678
If they lose-16→ 1646
If they win+16→ 1679
If they lose-16→ 1647
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1523 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1606 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Dakota HopeSage Northcutt
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Dakota Hope51%
Sage Northcutt 49%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Dakota Hope a 51% favorite over Sage Northcutt in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Sage Northcutt's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1662 vs 1663), separated by just 1 points.
Dakota Hope finishes 55% of wins inside the distance, Sage Northcutt 75%.
Sage Northcutt carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.