Combat Edge Intelligence

Dalton Rosta vs Dustin Stoltzfus

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-4-0Record17-8-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height5'11"
75"Reach75"
186 lbsWeight185 lbs
American Top TeamTeamFrankers Fight Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Dalton RostaNow 1658
If they win+16→ 1674
If they lose-16→ 1642
Dustin StoltzfusNow 1660
If they win+12→ 1672
If they lose-12→ 1648

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1640 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1683 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
3.30
TBD
Strike accuracy
45%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.23
TBD
Strike defense
48%
TBD
Takedown avg.
2.08
TBD
Takedown accuracy
10%
TBD
Takedown defense
47%
TBD
Submission avg.
1.11

Trajectory

Dalton RostaDustin Stoltzfus
16501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (36%)
KO/TKO
3 (19%)
1 (9%)
Submission
7 (44%)
6 (55%)
Decision
6 (38%)

Combat Edge model read

Dustin Stoltzfus71%
Dalton Rosta 29%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Dustin Stoltzfus a 71% favorite over Dalton Rosta in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1658 vs 1660), separated by just 2 points.

Dalton Rosta enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Dalton Rosta finishes 45% of wins inside the distance, Dustin Stoltzfus 63%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.