Damien Lapilus vs Nicolae Bivol
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-15-3Record8-3-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'10"
79.5"Reach72.4"
155 lbsWeight156 lbs
MMA FactoryTeamFree Fight Academy· 1536 avg Elo · 6 rated
What's at stake
Nicolae Bivol is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Damien Lapilus carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1578
If they lose-10→ 1554
If they win+14→ 1630
If they lose-18→ 1598
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1579 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1547 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Damien LapilusNicolae Bivol
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Nicolae Bivol57%
Damien Lapilus 43%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Nicolae Bivol a 57% favorite over Damien Lapilus in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Nicolae Bivol holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1616 to 1564, a 52-point edge.
Damien Lapilus finishes 65% of wins inside the distance, Nicolae Bivol 88%.
Damien Lapilus and Nicolae Bivol share 1 common opponent: Ryan Eren Agbo.
Damien Lapilus carries a 7-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.