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HEXAGONE MMA 47 : LAPILUS VS BIVOL

Damien Lapilus vs Nicolae Bivol

DateSep 25, 2026
DivisionFight card
StatusScheduled
VenueZénith Toulouse Métropole
BroadcastNetwork TBD
Start times & how to watch
Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Friday, September 25, 2026.

US East (ET)
Fri 1:00 PM
US West (PT)
Fri 10:00 AM
United Kingdom
Fri 6:00 PM
Central Europe
Fri 7:00 PM
Australia (Sydney)
Sat 3:00 AM
Damien LapilusWalking Dead |22-15-3Damien Lapilus vs Nicolae BivolNicolae Bivol7-3-0
frDamien LapilusWalking Dead22-15-3Damien Lapilus
Elo1551Solid
3Y trend1538 → 1551
2024-11-09: 15382025-05-17: 15542025-10-18: 15412026-06-12: 1551
fr

Fight Overview

RoundTBD
TimeTBD
22-15-3Record7-3-0
38Age30
5'8"Height5'10"
79.5"Reach72.4"
155 lbsWeight156 lbs
Fight cardWeight ClassFight card
mdNicolae Bivol7-3-0mdNicolae Bivol
Elo1570Solid
3Y trend1524 → 1570
2023-06-17: 15242023-07-28: 15512024-02-10: 15752024-04-06: 15512024-06-02: 15762024-11-16: 15972025-01-10: 16162025-03-29: 15762026-01-09: 15982026-05-29: 1570
Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Nicolae Bivol owns a 19-point Elo edge (solid). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. 2 shared opponents give extra context.

Compare Damien Lapilus and Nicolae Bivol across their careers →

Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Damien LapilusNicolae Bivol
15501600202420252026

Recent form

Damien LapilusW L W W D · +25 Elo last 5
WLWWD
Nicolae BivolL W L W W · -5 Elo last 5
LWLWW

Elo edge

Damien Lapilus1551+10 last move
Nicolae Bivol1570-28 last move
Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.7-2026-08-28
50%Damien Lapilus50%Nicolae Bivol
Model favoriteDamien Lapilus
Elo baseline47% for Damien Lapilus
Matchup adjustment+3 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Damien LapilusStake

Sponsored — betting partner link. 19+ (18+ where permitted). Please play responsibly.

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model flips Elo

The full model flips the Elo-only lean: Damien Lapilus is 50%, after Elo alone favored Nicolae Bivol at 53%.

Current Elo ratings1551 · 1570Nicolae Bivol leads by 19 rating points.
Recent opponent quality1541 · 1497Damien Lapilus faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).
Elo record depth29 · 10 fightsDamien Lapilus has the deeper counted Elo history.
Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.
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Stat advantages

Damien LapilusvsNicolae Bivol

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Damien Lapilussubmission leads 36% of wins
Nicolae BivolKO/TKO leads 43% of wins

Common opponents

Ryan Eren AgboDamien Lapilus: win · Decision (Unanimous) · Jun 12, 2026Nicolae Bivol: win · Submission (Ninja Choke) · Jan 9, 2026
Wilson VarelaDamien Lapilus: cancelled · Cancelled Bout · Aug 7, 2026Nicolae Bivol: loss · Submission (Triangle Choke) · Mar 29, 2025

Tale of the tape

Damien LapilusNicolae Bivol

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per minNot available
UFC lightweight average : 3.82
Not availableSig. strike accuracyNot available
UFC lightweight average : 46%
Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per minNot available
UFC lightweight average : 3.91
Not availableSig. strike defenseNot available
UFC lightweight average : 53%
Not availableTakedown averageNot available
UFC lightweight average : 1.69
Not availableTakedown accuracyNot available
UFC lightweight average : 29%
Not availableTakedown defenseNot available
UFC lightweight average : 59%
Not availableSubmission averageNot available
UFC lightweight average : 0.50
6Wins by knockout3
8Wins by submission3
8Wins by decision1
7Losses by knockout0
5Losses by submission1
2Losses by decision2

Damien Lapilus vs Nicolae Bivol is a scheduled Fight card fight on HEXAGONE MMA 47 : LAPILUS VS BIVOL. Damien Lapilus enters with a 22-15-3 record and Nicolae Bivol enters with a 7-3-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.

Damien Lapilus vs Nicolae Bivol quick answers

When is Damien Lapilus vs Nicolae Bivol?

Damien Lapilus vs Nicolae Bivol is listed for HEXAGONE MMA 47 : LAPILUS VS BIVOL on Sep 25, 2026 at 1:00 PM EST.

What event is Damien Lapilus vs Nicolae Bivol on?

Damien Lapilus vs Nicolae Bivol is listed on HEXAGONE MMA 47 : LAPILUS VS BIVOL.

What are the records for Damien Lapilus vs Nicolae Bivol?

Damien Lapilus enters with a 22-15-3 record and Nicolae Bivol enters with a 7-3-0 record.

What division is Damien Lapilus vs Nicolae Bivol?

Damien Lapilus vs Nicolae Bivol is listed as a Fight card fight.

Full fight card
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