Combat Edge Intelligence

Dan Evensen vs Thomas Petersen

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-4-0Record11-5-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'1"
TBDReach74"
252 lbsWeight257 lbs
TeamSpartan MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Dan EvensenNow 1627
If they win+16→ 1643
If they lose-16→ 1611
Thomas PetersenNow 1625
If they win+16→ 1641
If they lose-16→ 1609

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1527 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1627 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

0.27
Sig. strikes / min
3.10
11%
Strike accuracy
60%
3.86
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.61
38%
Strike defense
55%
0
Takedown avg.
3.01
0%
Takedown accuracy
43%
0%
Takedown defense
88%
3.99
Submission avg.
0.38

Trajectory

Dan EvensenThomas Petersen
15501600165020072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

7 (70%)
KO/TKO
7 (64%)
1 (10%)
Submission
1 (9%)
2 (20%)
Decision
3 (27%)

Combat Edge model read

Thomas Petersen60%
Dan Evensen 40%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Thomas Petersen a 60% favorite over Dan Evensen in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Dan Evensen's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1627 vs 1625), separated by just 2 points.

Dan Evensen enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Dan Evensen finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Thomas Petersen 73%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.