Combat Edge Intelligence

Dan Henderson vs Hector Lombard

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

32-15-0Record34-11-1
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height5'9"
74"Reach71.00
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Team QuestTeamUFD Gym

What's at stake

Dan Henderson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Hector Lombard carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Dan HendersonNow 1740
If they win+11→ 1751
If they lose-13→ 1727
Hector LombardNow 1704
If they win+13→ 1717
If they lose-11→ 1693

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1739 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1703 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.44
Sig. strikes / min
3.02
47%
Strike accuracy
46%
2.70
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.35
52%
Strike defense
53%
1.52
Takedown avg.
1.69
53%
Takedown accuracy
49%
58%
Takedown defense
77%
0.34
Submission avg.
0.47

Trajectory

Dan HendersonHector Lombard
17001750180020142015201620172018

Win method breakdown

17 (53%)
KO/TKO
22 (65%)
1 (3%)
Submission
4 (12%)
14 (44%)
Decision
8 (24%)

Combat Edge model read

Hector Lombard54%
Dan Henderson 46%Elo baseline: 45%

The Combat Edge model makes Hector Lombard a 54% favorite over Dan Henderson in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Dan Henderson's way (45%).

Dan Henderson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1740 to 1704, a 36-point edge.

Hector Lombard enters on a 6-fight loss streak.

Dan Henderson finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Hector Lombard 76%.

Dan Henderson carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.