Dan Henderson vs Lyoto Machida
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
32-15-0Record26-12-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height6'1"
74"Reach74"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Team QuestTeamAPAM
What's at stake
Dan Henderson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Lyoto Machida carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1750
If they lose-14→ 1726
If they win+14→ 1699
If they lose-10→ 1675
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1739 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1718 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Dan HendersonLyoto Machida
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Dan Henderson58%
Lyoto Machida 42%Elo baseline: 58%
The Combat Edge model makes Dan Henderson a 58% favorite over Lyoto Machida in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).
Dan Henderson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1740 to 1685, a 55-point edge.
Lyoto Machida enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Dan Henderson finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Lyoto Machida 50%.
Dan Henderson and Lyoto Machida share 2 common opponents: Vitor Belfort and Gegard Mousasi.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.