Combat Edge Intelligence

Dan Henderson vs Maurício Rua

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

32-15-0Record27-14-1
MiddleweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'1"Height6'1"
74"Reach76"
185 lbsWeight205 lbs
Team QuestTeamUniversidade da Luta

What's at stake

Dan Henderson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Maurício Rua carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Dan HendersonNow 1740
If they win+10→ 1750
If they lose-14→ 1726
Maurício RuaNow 1691
If they win+14→ 1705
If they lose-10→ 1681

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1739 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1682 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.44
Sig. strikes / min
3.57
47%
Strike accuracy
51%
2.70
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.79
52%
Strike defense
54%
1.52
Takedown avg.
2.01
53%
Takedown accuracy
49%
58%
Takedown defense
49%
0.34
Submission avg.
0.71

Trajectory

Dan HendersonMaurício Rua
170017502014201520162017201820192020202120222023

Win method breakdown

17 (53%)
KO/TKO
21 (78%)
1 (3%)
Submission
1 (4%)
14 (44%)
Decision
5 (19%)

Combat Edge model read

Dan Henderson57%
Maurício Rua 43%Elo baseline: 57%

The Combat Edge model makes Dan Henderson a 57% favorite over Maurício Rua in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).

Dan Henderson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1740 to 1691, a 49-point edge.

Maurício Rua enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Dan Henderson finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Maurício Rua 81%.

Maurício Rua carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.