Combat Edge Intelligence

Dan Henderson vs Rashad Evans

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

32-15-0Record20-8-1
MiddleweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'1"Height5'11"
74"Reach75"
185 lbsWeight205 lbs
Team QuestTeamKill Cliff FC

What's at stake

Dan Henderson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Rashad Evans carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Dan HendersonNow 1740
If they win+10→ 1750
If they lose-14→ 1726
Rashad EvansNow 1674
If they win+14→ 1688
If they lose-10→ 1664

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1739 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1724 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.44
Sig. strikes / min
2.14
47%
Strike accuracy
38%
2.70
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.42
52%
Strike defense
63%
1.52
Takedown avg.
2.98
53%
Takedown accuracy
45%
58%
Takedown defense
74%
0.34
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Dan HendersonRashad Evans
17001750201420152016201720182019202020212022

Win method breakdown

17 (53%)
KO/TKO
8 (40%)
1 (3%)
Submission
1 (5%)
14 (44%)
Decision
11 (55%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Dan Henderson and Rashad Evans within a point of even.

Dan Henderson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1740 to 1674, a 66-point edge.

Dan Henderson finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Rashad Evans 45%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.