Dan Henderson vs Rousimar Palhares
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
32-15-0Record19-13-1
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
6'1"Height5'8"
74"ReachTBD
185 lbsWeight170 lbs
Team QuestTeamTeam Nogueira· 1582 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
Dan Henderson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Rousimar Palhares carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+6→ 1746
If they lose-18→ 1722
If they win+18→ 1562
If they lose-6→ 1538
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1739 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1542 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Dan HendersonRousimar Palhares
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Dan Henderson78%
Rousimar Palhares 22%Elo baseline: 76%
The Combat Edge model makes Dan Henderson a 78% favorite over Rousimar Palhares in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (76%).
Dan Henderson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1740 to 1544, a 196-point edge.
Rousimar Palhares enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Dan Henderson finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Rousimar Palhares 84%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.