Daniel Kelly vs Sam Alvey
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
13-4-0Record34-18-1
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height6'2"
70,5"Reach75"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Resilience Training CentreTeamTeam Quest
What's at stake
Daniel Kelly is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Sam Alvey carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1714
If they lose-19→ 1682
If they win+14→ 1654
If they lose-10→ 1630
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1650 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1664 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Daniel KellySam Alvey
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Daniel Kelly58%
Sam Alvey 42%Elo baseline: 59%
The Combat Edge model makes Daniel Kelly a 58% favorite over Sam Alvey in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).
Daniel Kelly holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1701 to 1640, a 61-point edge.
Daniel Kelly enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Daniel Kelly finishes 62% of wins inside the distance, Sam Alvey 68%.
Sam Alvey carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.