Combat Edge Intelligence

Daniel Pineda vs Herbert Burns

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

28-17-0Record11-6-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'7"Height5'9"
69"Reach 73"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
4oz. Fight Club· 1653 avg Elo · 6 ratedTeamKill Cliff FC

What's at stake

Herbert Burns is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Daniel Pineda carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Daniel PinedaNow 1593
If they win+13→ 1606
If they lose-11→ 1582
Herbert BurnsNow 1614
If they win+15→ 1629
If they lose-17→ 1597

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1608 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1619 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.85
Sig. strikes / min
1.86
50%
Strike accuracy
37%
3.26
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.17
46%
Strike defense
42%
1.42
Takedown avg.
2.94
24%
Takedown accuracy
35%
55%
Takedown defense
67%
1.54
Submission avg.
1.84

Trajectory

Daniel PinedaHerbert Burns
1600165020232024

Win method breakdown

9 (32%)
KO/TKO
1 (9%)
19 (68%)
Submission
8 (73%)
0 (0%)
Decision
2 (18%)

Combat Edge model read

Herbert Burns60%
Daniel Pineda 40%Elo baseline: 53%

The Combat Edge model makes Herbert Burns a 60% favorite over Daniel Pineda in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).

Herbert Burns holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1614 to 1593, a 21-point edge.

Daniel Pineda enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Herbert Burns enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Daniel Pineda finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Herbert Burns 82%.

Herbert Burns carries a 4-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.