Daniel Rodriguez vs Kelvin Gastelum
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
20-5-0Record20-11-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height5'9"
74"Reach71"
184 lbsWeight185 lbs
10th Planet Jiu-JitsuTeamFight Ready
What's at stake
Daniel Rodriguez is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Kelvin Gastelum carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1757
If they lose-14→ 1733
If they win+14→ 1707
If they lose-10→ 1683
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1720 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1715 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Daniel RodriguezKelvin Gastelum
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Daniel Rodriguez57%
Kelvin Gastelum 43%Elo baseline: 58%
The Combat Edge model makes Daniel Rodriguez a 57% favorite over Kelvin Gastelum in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).
Daniel Rodriguez holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1747 to 1693, a 54-point edge.
Daniel Rodriguez enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Daniel Rodriguez finishes 65% of wins inside the distance, Kelvin Gastelum 55%.
Daniel Rodriguez carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.