Combat Edge Intelligence

Daniel Rodriguez vs Kelvin Gastelum

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

20-6-0Record20-11-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height5'9"
74"Reach71"
184 lbsWeight185 lbs
10th Planet Jiu-JitsuTeamFight Ready

What's at stake

Daniel Rodriguez is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Kelvin Gastelum carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Daniel RodriguezNow 1731
If they win+11→ 1742
If they lose-13→ 1718
Kelvin GastelumNow 1693
If they win+13→ 1706
If they lose-11→ 1682

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1722 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1715 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

7.20
Sig. strikes / min
3.65
49%
Strike accuracy
42%
5.40
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.52
58%
Strike defense
57%
0.51
Takedown avg.
1.04
50%
Takedown accuracy
13%
64%
Takedown defense
60%
0.08
Submission avg.
0.09

Trajectory

Daniel RodriguezKelvin Gastelum
17001750202420252026

Win method breakdown

9 (45%)
KO/TKO
6 (30%)
4 (20%)
Submission
5 (25%)
7 (35%)
Decision
9 (45%)

Combat Edge model read

Daniel Rodriguez61%
Kelvin Gastelum 39%Elo baseline: 55%

The Combat Edge model makes Daniel Rodriguez a 61% favorite over Kelvin Gastelum in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).

Daniel Rodriguez holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1731 to 1693, a 38-point edge.

Daniel Rodriguez finishes 65% of wins inside the distance, Kelvin Gastelum 55%.

Daniel Rodriguez carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.