Daniel Rodriguez vs Tim Means
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
20-5-0Record33-17-1
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height6'2"
74"Reach75"
184 lbsWeight170 lbs
10th Planet Jiu-JitsuTeamFit NHB
What's at stake
Daniel Rodriguez is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Tim Means carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1756
If they lose-15→ 1732
If they win+15→ 1661
If they lose-9→ 1637
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1720 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1672 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Daniel RodriguezTim Means
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Daniel Rodriguez83%
Tim Means 17%Elo baseline: 64%
The Combat Edge model makes Daniel Rodriguez a 83% favorite over Tim Means in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).
Daniel Rodriguez holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1747 to 1646, a 101-point edge.
Daniel Rodriguez enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Tim Means enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Daniel Rodriguez finishes 65% of wins inside the distance, Tim Means 76%.
Daniel Rodriguez and Tim Means share 3 common opponents: Kevin Holland, Alex Morono and Mike Perry.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.