Combat Edge Intelligence

Danilo Marques vs Jailton Almeida

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

15-6-0Record22-5-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'6"Height6'4"
77"Reach79"
249 lbsWeight241 lbs
Kings MMA· 1672 avg Elo · 7 ratedTeamGalpao da Luta· 1695 avg Elo · 5 rated

What's at stake

Jailton Almeida is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Danilo Marques carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Danilo MarquesNow 1589
If they win+24→ 1613
If they lose-8→ 1581
Jailton AlmeidaNow 1771
If they win+8→ 1779
If they lose-24→ 1747

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1595 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1717 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.44
Sig. strikes / min
2.23
80%
Strike accuracy
63%
2.52
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.30
52%
Strike defense
43%
3.93
Takedown avg.
5.64
29%
Takedown accuracy
3%
0%
Takedown defense
60%
0.79
Submission avg.
1.68

Trajectory

Danilo MarquesJailton Almeida
16001700180020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (27%)
KO/TKO
8 (36%)
7 (47%)
Submission
13 (59%)
4 (27%)
Decision
1 (5%)

Combat Edge model read

Jailton Almeida92%
Danilo Marques 8%Elo baseline: 74%

The Combat Edge model makes Jailton Almeida a 92% favorite over Danilo Marques in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (74%).

Jailton Almeida holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1771 to 1589, a 182-point edge.

Jailton Almeida enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Danilo Marques finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Jailton Almeida 95%.

Jailton Almeida carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.