Danny Castillo vs Jim Miller
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-10-0Record39-19-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'8"
71,0"Reach71"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Team Alpha MaleTeamSussex County MMA
What's at stake
Jim Miller is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Danny Castillo carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+16→ 1620
If they lose-8→ 1596
If they win+8→ 1728
If they lose-16→ 1704
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1653 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1679 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Danny CastilloJim Miller
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jim Miller78%
Danny Castillo 22%Elo baseline: 66%
The Combat Edge model makes Jim Miller a 78% favorite over Danny Castillo in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (66%).
Jim Miller holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1720 to 1604, a 116-point edge.
Danny Castillo enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Danny Castillo finishes 59% of wins inside the distance, Jim Miller 74%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.